Fred Bowen's "The Score" column,
January 9, 2004, Washington Post

Playoff Football Is Unpredictable

Predicting football games is like predicting the weather. Everyone is wrong about half the time. So predicting which of the eight remaining teams in the National Football League playoffs will make this year's Super Bowl is super tough.

All the teams are good. And playoff games are usually close, like last week's Green Bay Packers' 33-27 overtime win against the Seattle Seahawks, or the Tennessee Titans' 20-17 thriller with the Baltimore Ravens. Who wins can depend on a bad call, a lucky bounce or one big play.

But let's give picking the winners a try. After all, one of the fun things about being a sports fan is trying to figure out what is going to happen before the games begin.

I figure that a team needs three things to win a Super Bowl: a really good quarterback, a rock-solid defense (one that gives up fewer than 20 points a game) and a winning record on the road. Winning on the road shows that the team can win the close, hard-fought games. So after I checked out my three "keys to the Super Bowl," who do I figure will be the flops and the favorites in this year's playoffs?

Flops: The Kansas City Chiefs (13-3 in the regular season) have a great record, but they are not a great team. Why? Their defense stinks. The Chiefs defense was rated 14th in the 16-team American Football Conference. Now they have to face the Indianapolis Colts and their red-hot quarterback, Peyton Manning. Manning was almost perfect in the Colts' 41-10 win over the Denver Broncos. So look for the Colts to beat the Chiefs in a high-scoring shootout.

I don't think the St. Louis Rams (12-4) will make it to Super Bowl XXXVIII either. The high-scoring Rams may be the "greatest show on turf" when they play indoors at home. But their record is only 4-4 away from their domed home field. So the Rams are doomed if they have to play a tough team outdoors.

Favorites: Only three teams got high marks for their quarterbacks, defense and record on the road: the New England Patriots (14-2), Philadelphia Eagles (12-4) and Green Bay Packers (10-6). And the Patriots and the Eagles are good picks to go all the way.

One thing makes me nervous about the Pats. Even though kicker Adam Vinatieri made the game-winning field goal in Super Bowl XXXVI, he hasn't been a hero this season. Vinatieri has made only nine of 17 field goals longer than 30 yards this season. That's poor for a pro. So if New England needs a clutch kick in a close game, Vinatieri might not be the man.

The Eagles and the Patriots may be favored, but Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre is everybody's favorite. Favre is playing like an all-pro even though his dad died just a couple weeks ago. But I don't think Favre can work another miracle against the rough-and-tumble Eagles.

Prediction: Next week, the Philadelphia Eagles will beat the St. Louis Rams in the wind and the cold to capture the NFC title, and the Indianapolis Colts will win the AFC by upsetting the New England Patriots by a field goal.

But don't count on it. Like a weatherman or a football fan, I'm wrong about half the time.

As for who wins the Super Bowl, check back in this space on Jan. 30 for my pick.