Fred Bowen's "The Score" column,
September 28, 2001, Washington Post

How Good Will He Be?

He's back.

Michael Jordan, six-time world champion, 10-time scoring leader in the National Basketball Association and maybe the greatest player ever, is returning to pro basketball and will play for the Washington Wizards.

Suddenly, MCI Center (the Wizards' home court) is the center of the basketball universe. The Wizards, who struggled to a 19-63 record last season, will be on national TV all the time. And Wizards tickets will be harder to get than a brand-new pair of Air Jordan XVI Plus shoes from Nike.

No doubt, Jordan's comeback will be fun and exciting for hoops fans. But let's get to the big question: How good will Michael Jordan be?

I mean, no one can expect even Michael Jordan to be the high-flying, slam-jamming all-around superstar he was when he was in his twenties. Heck, in those days, Jordan still had his hair.

Just check out Jordan's per-game statistics for the 1988-89 season when he was about 26 years old and at the top of his game. (FG percent is the number of baskets a player makes for each 100 shots. Especially for a guard, anything better than 50 percent is all-star level.)

Points FG Rebounds Assists

32.553.88.08.0

Three years ago, during his last season, Jordan was 35 years old and still pretty terrific. He even won his fifth most valuable player award. But Jordan was not as good as he had been when he was younger. Check out the stats for 1997-98:

PointsFGReboundsAssists

28.746.56.03.4

Now Michael Jordan is 38. I know that some older baseball players -- Barry Bonds (37), Roger Clemens (39) and Randy Johnson (38) -- have played great this year. But this is pro hoops. I can't think of a single NBA player who actually got better between the ages of 35 and 38.

Another thing: Jordan will not be playing for the world champion Chicago Bulls. He'll be playing for the bottom-of-the-barrel Washington Wizards. No more prime-time players such as Bulls teammates Scottie Pippen and Ron Harper. Instead, Jordan will be teaching NBA newcomers such as Kwame Brown and Courtney Alexander what it takes to win.

Okay, so he won't be the same old Michael Jordan. But will he be good enough to help the Washington Wizards?

Well, let's guess that after three years of sitting around and playing golf, Jordan will be 75 percent of what he was during his last year as a pro. Giving him a break on his shooting percentage, that means his statistics would be:

PointsFGReboundsAssists

21.240.04.52.5

That may not be the Michael Jordan you see at Imax, but those kinds of statistics still represent a good player. Maybe even an all-star.

Can a player like that help the Wizards?

No question about it.

Fred Bowen is the author of sports novels for kids. Write to him at KidsPost, 1150 15th St. NW, Washington, DC 20071. Or e-mail (with "The Score" in the subject field): kidspost@washpost.com.

© 2001 The Washington Post Company